Global markets

On statewide drive with Jess Maguire, I explained that recent market volatility reflects investors reassessing some big assumptions, particularly after Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair.

Many investors had been expecting lower U.S. interest rates, so the nomination caught markets off guard and forced a reversal of those bets. That led to sharp falls in gold and silver, higher bond yields, and weaker share prices. While precious metals may recover over time, I see the bigger influence on sharemarkets as the gradual unwinding of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. For Australia, stronger U.S. growth can support some companies, but persistent inflation risks and policy uncertainty mean investors are becoming more cautious and re-evaluating risk.

Listen from 1:44:55 here: ABC Statewide Drive. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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Yet, the stock market’s buoyancy belies the head-spinning conga line of events over the first month of 2026 that would, at any other time in history, have caused the market to plunge or coincided with it.

Take gold’s 17 per cent ascent so far this month, which follows a 66 per cent rise in 2025. Such moves are unusual. Since gold began trading freely in the 1970s, the average annual return for gold has been roughly 6-8 per cent. January’s return doubles that annual number.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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It has struck me as curious that one of the sectors of the global market that was hit after the pandemic lockdowns were lifted but has generally failed to recover, is luxury retail. 

I have long believed that many prestige brands, such as Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Prada, and Ralph Lauren, are now so common on street corners and in shopping centres and malls that they verge on being more mass-market than exclusive, more masstige than prestige. One questions how much longer they can sustain their high margins if consumers become unwilling to pay ever-increasing prices for items that can be bought just about anywhere. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to talk about why markets are holding near all-time highs despite rising geopolitical tensions, soaring gold and silver prices, and growing uncertainty around inflation and interest rates.

We discussed how mining companies are benefiting from strong commodity prices, why consumer spending remains under pressure from rising living costs, and how banks and other key sectors may respond in a more volatile environment. While no one can predict where markets will head next, 2026 is shaping up to be a bumpier year, with investors rotating away from artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and preparing for greater swings as economic and political risks build.

Tune in from 32:41 to hear the full segment: ABC Newcastle Mornings.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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2025 was a strong year for small companies and for the Montgomery Small Companies Fund. In this detailed video, I’m joined by Gary Rollo, Co-Portfolio Manager of the Montgomery Small Companies Fund to review the Fund’s performance, key market drivers, and the outlook for small caps and growth companies heading into 2026. continue…

by Scott Phillips Posted in Companies, Economics, Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Small Caps, Stocks We Like.

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Goldman Sachs Research represents one of the largest stockbroking firms in the world.  So, it should come as no surprise that the investment bank has recently published its stock market outlook for the next decade, predicting an average annual return of almost eight per cent.

But if you’ve grown accustomed to smooth and steady gains, you may need to recalibrate your expectations, despite Goldman Sachs’ reassurances. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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2025 has been an eventful year, with some strong returns – but what comes next? I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed for their Summer Series to break down the forces that shaped markets this year. Looking ahead to 2026, I explain why investors should expect higher volatility, limited future gains given today’s stretched valuations, and why rebalancing portfolios into alternative offerings that are uncorrelated to markets should be considered. 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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Let’s state the obvious right at the outset: No one knows for certain if the equity market will crash.

The reality of investing is that we can rarely identify a bubble until after it has burst, which means we can never be sure when we are inside one. However, with that necessary disclaimer in place, I am reasonably confident that investors should prepare for a shift in 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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Back in October, I examined the emerging trend of interest rate cuts across the Western world, looking at why they were occurring and how different economies were responding. Since then, rate cuts have continued in several countries. In this update, I return to the same six economies (Australia, the U.S., the UK, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand), incorporating more recent inflation expectations and labour-market data to assess what these developments may signal for 2026.
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by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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