Global markets
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A bullish investor’s reminder
Roger Montgomery
July 31, 2026
Every time the stock market stumbles a percentage point or two, headlines invariably scream the same ominous question: Is the big market crash finally here?
It’s easy to sympathise with investor nervousness, despite the S&P500 being less than three per cent from all-time highs. Tensions overseas are triggering spikes in energy prices as strategic reserves are depleted, inflation persists at rates well above central bank preferences, interest rates remain unpredictable, and tech valuations and AI-related spending seem perpetually stretched.
But look beneath the surface of recent market pullbacks, and a different picture emerges.
It helps to understand the mechanics of market volatility, which isn’t about predicting the exact day a dip will happen, but rather recognising the difference between run-of-the-mill turbulence and structural damage. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Right now, concentration is your portfolio’s biggest threat
Roger Montgomery
July 30, 2026
On the surface, markets appear remarkably resilient, so if you’ve felt a sense of calm looking at your portfolio performance lately, you aren’t alone.
But look beneath the surface and the structural fragility you’ll see in valuations, government debt, and global trade makes holding a narrow, concentrated equity portfolio (including any portfolio largely invested in index ETFs) one of the more dangerous bets an investor can make right now. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The ‘profitless rally’
Roger Montgomery
July 23, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how the rise of passive investing is reshaping markets. With ETFs and index funds now dominating trading, quality-focused active managers are struggling as money flows into the biggest index constituents regardless of valuation or fundamentals. While this trend may continue for some time, market cycles eventually turn, and when they do, companies with strong fundamentals, high-quality balance sheets and durable cash flows are likely to come back into favour.
Watch the episode here: The “profitless rally” Roger thinks could end badly continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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MEDIA
The Australian – AI boom turns S&P 500 into a dangerous bet
Roger Montgomery
July 21, 2026
In my latest article for The Australian, I argue that the S&P 500 is no longer the diversified benchmark many investors believe it to be. With an increasing share of the index now driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, concentration risk is at extreme levels. History suggests these periods don’t last forever, making quality companies and genuine diversification worth a closer look.
Download the article here: AI boom turns S&P 500 into a dangerous betby Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Watching Hyperscaler debt
Roger Montgomery
July 17, 2026
Many years ago, I was asked by an AFR journalist whether I would revise my valuation of ABC Learning Centres, which was a tiny fraction of the traded price at the time, given the Singaporean Sovereign Wealth Fund (Temasek) had just invested in the company’s then-latest capital raise at a much higher market valuation.
Full of youthful confidence, I responded: “stupid people live in all different countries.”
A familiar pattern of fundraising and deployment was playing out at ABC Learning. It was one I had seen before and one which often resulted in pear-shaped returns for equity investors. That was certainly the case at ABC, which subsequently blew up spectacularly. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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Turning the page from Fiscal 2026 to Fiscal 2027
David Buckland
July 2, 2026
As we begin Fiscal 2027, it is worth taking a step back to reflect on the major themes that shaped global markets over the past year. I explore the key developments across equities, bonds, interest rates, commodities and currencies, and consider what they may mean for investors going forward.
From Magnificent Seven to Memory Seven
In the three calendar years 2023-2025, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), rose by an average 333 per cent, turning $1.00 into $4.33.
That strong upward trajectory came to an end in the six months to June 2026, with an average decline of 2 per cent. With Microsoft (-23 per cent),Meta (-15 per cent) and Tesla (-6 per cent) leading the fall.
The baton has been passed to the “Memory” sector with an average 419 per cent capital appreciation across seven companies in six months to June 2026 being reported, namely: SanDisk (+858 per cent), Kioxia (+759 per cent), Micron Technology (+304 per cent), SK Hynix (+305 per cent), Intel (+278 per cent), Marvell Technology (+251 per cent) and Samsung (+177 per cent). continue…by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Editor's Pick, Feature Article, Financial Services, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Popular, Property.
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The AI bubble – Cracks beneath the surface
Roger Montgomery
June 30, 2026
In this video insight, I explain why I believe investors should look beyond the strong earnings and seemingly reasonable valuations driving enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI). I examine questions surrounding optimistic market assumptions, insider selling incentives, the economics of AI, rising debt levels, weakening cash flows, and whether reported earnings are overstating the sector’s underlying profitability. I also argue that low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios do not necessarily protect markets from significant corrections and suggest the real bubble may lie in AI earnings expectations rather than share prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Is the Bond market crashing the equity party?
Roger Montgomery
June 22, 2026
If you want to know where the stock market might be headed, you have to look at the economic gravity being exerted by the bond market. Right now, U.S. stocks and bonds appear to be on a dangerous collision course.
Think of it in terms of a feedback loop: soaring stock prices have made U.S. households feel incredibly wealthy – with equity holdings sitting at a record 250 per cent of disposable income – which keeps consumer spending hot and inflation sticky. At the same time, tech giants are pouring billions into data centres, further heating up the economy.
As the new U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Chair, Kevin Warsh, just hinted, inflation won’t come down. So bond yields won’t drop until the stock market takes a meaningful breather to cool things off. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Buffett vs. Musk
Roger Montgomery
June 18, 2026
“You cannot be afraid of new technologies. I think that this tenet passed Warren Buffett by. As he is the greatest investor of all time, I think it’s important to recognise that if he were not afraid of product cycles and obsolescence, he would have made much more these last few years than he did. Now, I know we shouldn’t criticise someone of his unbelievable prowess, but we must also recognise that it was wrong not to include technology stocks in the portfolio…[they] are creating too much wealth to ignore.”
With Musk now the world’s first recorded trillionaire after SpaceX’s float last Friday, you might be thinking the above quote has merit, especially as 60 per cent of Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio is sitting in cash.
But the above quote, by Jim Cramer, was made in January 2000, just three months before the Dot.Com crash wiped 76.81 per cent from the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite index and investors saw an estimated US$5 trillion in paper wealth evaporate between 2000 and 2002. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
ABC Newcastle Mornings – The SpaceX IPO and what investors need to know
Roger Montgomery
June 16, 2026
I joined Kylie Morris on ABC Newcastle Mornings today to discuss the extraordinary rise of SpaceX following its record Initial Public Offering (IPO). We explored why the company’s valuation appears disconnected from traditional measures of value, how NASDAQ’s fast-tracked index inclusion could force ETFs and superannuation funds to buy shares, and why investors should be mindful of the risks that can emerge when market hype and scarcity drive prices higher.
Listen from 37:04: ABC Newcastle Mornings continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Global markets, Market Valuation, Radio.
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