Global markets
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The U.S. stock market approaches October with lots to worry about
Roger Montgomery
September 22, 2026
When the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields pierced five per cent on September 14, they reached their highest level since October 2023, and signalled a potential conflict between sovereign debt realities and a relentlessly optimistic equity market. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Put it on the tab
Roger Montgomery
September 17, 2026
In recent months, the chart shown in Figure 1., has been doing the rounds, inspiring fear among some observers that a stock market crash is imminent. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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The great Treasury swap (and why it matters)
Roger Montgomery
August 28, 2026
If you follow financial news, like I do, you might have recently heard market commentator Trevor Hall summarise Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s latest move in a single eye-opener:
“He’s buying back bonds with 1 per cent interest rates at 50 cents on the dollar and replacing them with short-term debt that currently yields 3 and ¾ per cent.”
It sounds like a paradox. Why would the U.S. government buy back debt that costs them almost nothing (1 per cent interest rates) and swap it for debt that costs almost four times as much (3.75 per cent)? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Overseas ownership continues at pace
David Buckland
August 19, 2026
In recent days, we have seen three ASX listed companies receive offers by private equity, and in each case, it appears their ownership will likely head overseas.
I Squared Capital
New York based “Sophisticated and long-term infrastructure investor”, I Squared Capital has bid $1.70 per share for oOh!media Limited (ASX: OML), thus valuing the company at over $1.0 billion in Enterprise Value (EV), including the $130 million of net debt as at June 2026. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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What happens next at the Fed matters
Roger Montgomery
August 12, 2026
If the S&P 500 is the dog that wags the global stock markets’ collective tail, then the U.S. central bank – The Federal Reserve – is the brain controlling that dog. What happens at the Fed matters to almost every investor around the world.
And those investors have grown accustomed to dancing with a Federal Reserve that provided reams of forward guidance, as well as a dependable feedback loop. When the Fed spoke, markets adjusted, and increasingly innovative monetary policy smoothed over any volatility. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
THE PROPERTY RUG PULL
Discover how proposed changes to negative gearing, Capital Gains Tax and holiday home tax rules could reshape property investing, and why investors may consider private credit as property returns become less certain and tax advantages diminish.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Who really wins from the AI boom?
Roger Montgomery
August 6, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss the next phase of the artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle and the growing divergence between the companies building AI infrastructure and the hyperscalers funding it. We explored the risks posed by mounting AI capital expenditure (capex), weakening cash flows, the emergence of lower-cost Chinese AI models and what could happen if hyperscalers begin slowing investment. We also discussed why investors may benefit from looking beyond momentum-driven technology stocks towards high-quality, value-oriented businesses and other defensive assets.
Watch the full episode on Ausbiz here: Who really wins from the AI boom? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Investing Education, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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A bullish investor’s reminder
Roger Montgomery
July 31, 2026
Every time the stock market stumbles a percentage point or two, headlines invariably scream the same ominous question: Is the big market crash finally here?
It’s easy to sympathise with investor nervousness, despite the S&P500 being less than three per cent from all-time highs. Tensions overseas are triggering spikes in energy prices as strategic reserves are depleted, inflation persists at rates well above central bank preferences, interest rates remain unpredictable, and tech valuations and AI-related spending seem perpetually stretched.
But look beneath the surface of recent market pullbacks, and a different picture emerges.
It helps to understand the mechanics of market volatility, which isn’t about predicting the exact day a dip will happen, but rather recognising the difference between run-of-the-mill turbulence and structural damage. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Right now, concentration is your portfolio’s biggest threat
Roger Montgomery
July 30, 2026
On the surface, markets appear remarkably resilient, so if you’ve felt a sense of calm looking at your portfolio performance lately, you aren’t alone.
But look beneath the surface and the structural fragility you’ll see in valuations, government debt, and global trade makes holding a narrow, concentrated equity portfolio (including any portfolio largely invested in index ETFs) one of the more dangerous bets an investor can make right now. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The ‘profitless rally’
Roger Montgomery
July 23, 2026
I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how the rise of passive investing is reshaping markets. With ETFs and index funds now dominating trading, quality-focused active managers are struggling as money flows into the biggest index constituents regardless of valuation or fundamentals. While this trend may continue for some time, market cycles eventually turn, and when they do, companies with strong fundamentals, high-quality balance sheets and durable cash flows are likely to come back into favour.
Watch the episode here: The “profitless rally” Roger thinks could end badly continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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MEDIA
The Australian – AI boom turns S&P 500 into a dangerous bet
Roger Montgomery
July 21, 2026
In my latest article for The Australian, I argue that the S&P 500 is no longer the diversified benchmark many investors believe it to be. With an increasing share of the index now driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, concentration risk is at extreme levels. History suggests these periods don’t last forever, making quality companies and genuine diversification worth a closer look.
Download the article here: AI boom turns S&P 500 into a dangerous betby Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.
