Global markets

I was fascinated by this morning’s Australian Financial Review (AFR) article, which pointed out markets appear to be disconnected from reality in the Middle East.

Comparing the current and more disruptive war in the Middle East to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which was far less disruptive to energy markets, the author notes:

“Back in 2022, Brent crude peaked at $US139 a barrel, compared with $US102 now. Back then, European gas peaked at €339 a megawatt hour, compared with €51 now. Back then, the price of urea, an oil by-product vital in the production of fertilisers, peaked at $US910 a tonne, compared with $US660 now. Back then, the S&P 500 fell 25 per cent peak-to-trough. Today, the index is down just 5.5 per cent from its January record high.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss how markets could respond when the war ends, noting a short conflict may trigger a relief rally while a prolonged one could see markets fall further before recovering. I also highlighted that beyond near-term volatility, investors should be paying closer attention to the growing risks around the U.S. debt trajectory.

With interest rates now exceeding economic growth and global demand for U.S. Treasuries softening as countries shift toward gold, the cost of funding is rising and the risk of a debt spiral is increasing. While that presents a longer-term concern, I also see potential upside, particularly if an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven bubble unwinds and creates opportunities to buy high-quality businesses at compelling valuations. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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In a fascinating Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, published this week, the U.S. state of Wyoming reportedly bought 2,312 ounces of gold in December after passing a law requiring the state’s investment portfolio to add precious metals as a hedge against economic turmoil.

According to the WSJ, “Among [Wyoming’s] worries are rising federal debt, inflation and a weak U.S. dollar – but also more extreme calamities, according to Bob Ide, a Republican state senator and lead sponsor of the ‘Wyoming Gold Act.”

For me, however, it was Ide’s comment about a U.S. default that piqued my interest, and should yours. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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I joined Philip Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the shift toward a more volatile market environment in 2026. With inflation likely rising again, growth slowing and oil prices climbing, the key conditions that supported recent equity gains are fading. We also explored potential war scenarios involving Iran and how they could impact markets, inflation and interest rates.

Given this backdrop, I highlighted the need to rethink portfolio construction, with private credit emerging as a potential alternative offering attractive income with lower volatility. We also touched on rising fuel costs, price pressures on consumers, and broader structural challenges in Australia’s economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio.

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The news that an Iranian drone reportedly struck a U.S.-linked commercial oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has done more than just spike the price of oil; it’s arguably shattered the fragile market equilibrium we’ve seen since the start of the year. And arguably, as intended, it has distracted everyone from the Epstein files.

At the time of writing Brent and WTI crude were up $US15 to $US107 a barrel. The Nikkei plummeted 4.5 per cent, and U.S. futures have cratered by as much as two per cent. So, why has a single drone strike erased billions in equity value across the globe?

This article was first published in The Australian on 09 March 2026. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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With the International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries agreeing to release 400 million barrels of oil, the largest ever since its creation in the 1970s, to lower crude prices from the war with Iran, it might inspire some investors to believe the threat to markets has been assuaged. But at the same time, Iran has attacked approximately 20 commercial vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz so far.

The Strait is now part of the Middle East war’s frontline as Iran seeks to inflict maximum economic pain on the world in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes on its territory. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The Trump administration’s decision to initiate a wide-scale military campaign against Iran, recently coined Operation Epic Fury, can be viewed through a number of lenses.  Some might say the strikes have been framed by Washington as a multifaceted necessity for global and domestic security. Others may simply say, the justifications for the strikes keep changing. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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I joined ABC News to discuss the market reaction to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Surging oil prices and concerns about supply disruptions have rattled global markets, prompting investors to reassess risks and reduce exposure to equities.

Watch here: ABC The Business. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Manufacturing, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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I’ve been spending some time today looking through Terry Moran’s latest piece on President Trump’s approach to the escalating conflict in Iran. Moran’s take – that the President is essentially “winging it” – is a sobering read for any disciplined investor.

According to Moran, when you look at the transcripts from the President’s recent flurry of interviews with the New York Times, ABC News, The Atlantic, Fox News, and MS Now, you don’t see a cohesive strategy. You see a series of contradictory “exits.” One minute it’s a popular uprising, the next it’s a negotiated settlement, and the next it’s “we’ll see what happens.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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U.S. consumer delinquencies jump to highest in almost a decade

As reported by Bloomberg, delinquency rates on loans rose to 4.8 per cent of all outstanding U.S. household debt in the fourth quarter, the highest level since 2017. The rise in defaults was driven by delinquencies in mortgage payments, particularly in lower income zip codes, and student-loan delinquencies. Overall household debt balances climbed 1 per cent from the previous quarter to $18.8 trillion, with the share of credit-card loans at least 90 days delinquent rising to 12.7 per cent. The jobless rate for workers 16 to 24 years old stood at 10.4 per cent in December, near the highest levels since the depths of the pandemic in 2021. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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