Global markets
-
U.S. recession risks for the regions
Roger Montgomery
May 7, 2025
The global economy faces a complex landscape as trade tensions between the United States and China persist, threatening economic stability. This week, Ric Deverell, the highly regarded Chief Economist at Macquarie, shared insights on the potential for a U.S. recession, the resilience of China’s economy, and the ripple effects on global markets, including Australia and Europe. Our interpretation of his comments follows, and where data is independently available, we have provided that data along with sources. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.
-
The end of an epoch. Warren Buffett retires.
Roger Montgomery
May 6, 2025
Australian investors, engrossed in the 2025 Federal Election, may have missed a seismic shift in the global financial landscape: Warren Buffett, the legendary investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, announced his retirement at the age of 94. On Saturday, during the company’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, Buffett revealed he would step down as CEO and chairman by the end of the year, handing the reins to Vice Chairman Greg Abel. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
- save this article
- POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary
-
The U.S. economy is teetering on stagflation’s edge
Roger Montgomery
April 30, 2025
The U.S is careening toward a potential recession, propelled by a dramatic escalation in trade barriers, including unprecedented tariffs on imports from China, one of its largest trading partners.
Economists believe the sweeping “Liberation Day” tariff initiative could trigger a sharp economic contraction by summer, and the fallout is already evident across corporate earnings, consumer behaviour, and global trade dynamics. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
- save this article
- POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary
-
Don’t be deceived – chaos to remain
Roger Montgomery
April 11, 2025
Overnight, U.S. President Trump backflipped on punitive global tariffs, bringing them down to a universal 10 per cent except for China, against which tariffs were raised from 104 per cent to 125 per cent.
Equity markets breathed a sigh of relief but is the coast clear? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
- 2 Comments
- save this article
- POSTED IN Global markets
-
The ASX needs a NAD+ pill
Roger Montgomery
April 3, 2025
On the surface, evidence shows that the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) may be at a crossroads. Companies like James Hardie are jumping ship for U.S. primary listings, Australian investors are piling into American stocks, and local unicorns like Canva might not even glance at the ASX for their big initial public offering (IPO) debut. It’s not a collapse – yet; remember, Guzman Y Gomez (ASX:GYG) chose Australia over a U.S. listing – but the cracks are starting to show. Is the ASX in trouble or just stuck in a tough spot? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
- save this article
- POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary
-
WHITEPAPER
HIGHER RETURNS AND LOWER RISK? YES, IT’S POSSIBLE WITH PRIVATE CREDIT
Discover how private credit can deliver higher returns with lower risk in our latest whitepaper. Learn how the Aura Core Income Fund’s AA equivalent rated portfolio has consistently outperformed while maintaining transparency and robust risk management. Unlock the insights to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns today.
READ HERE -
When catalysts aren’t catalysts – a look into the causes of market corrections
Roger Montgomery
March 31, 2025
I recently met with a young investor and trader, who was just beginning their market journey. During our conversation, he noted he was currently biased towards a market correction but was waiting for a catalyst.
The idea that a catalyst is required for a stock market correction is a flawed one. Corrections can occur without an apparent trigger – just ask those people still debating the cause of the 1987 crash (also known as Black Monday), a severe unexpected stock market crash leading to a worldwide loss of ~US$1.71 trillion).
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
- save this article
- POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary
-
Trump’s tariff gambit – reshaping global trade or stirring economic chaos?
Roger Montgomery
March 21, 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump has embarked on what some say is a belligerent and dangerous mission to upend and reshape the international economic and competitive landscape through a series of aggressive tariff policy changes. His approach which is characterised by sudden shifts and strategic reversals, aims to bolster American manufacturing and fill government coffers. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
- save this article
- POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary
-
Red light, green light – equity markets stalling or pedal to the metal?
Roger Montgomery
March 20, 2025
Back in February in our blog article Disinflation’s Bumpy Road we wrote: “With valuations now appreciably higher than at the beginning of 2023 and 2024, and now arguably stretched in parts of the market – particularly in high-growth tech – investors had been counting on rate cuts to justify further gains. But if the Fed remains on hold, or worse, if markets begin to price in a “higher for longer” scenario, equity risk premiums might have to adjust.”
The ‘Magnificent 7’ stocks (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) appear to be rolling in neutral gear, with an observable slowing in earnings growth. To be clear, earnings are still growing but the rate of growth is slowing down. So what does this all mean? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
- save this article
- POSTED IN Global markets
-
Fat tails indicate that the S&P 500 is unexpectedly strong
Roger Montgomery
March 19, 2025
It hasn’t been widely reported (which could, of course, mean I am about to repeat the common mistake of reading too much into a central banker’s utterances), but earlier in March, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, dropped a subtle remark that may shed light on the central bank’s mindset. As the Federal Reserve heads into its meeting this week, Powell’s words may also carry weight for the unpredictable economic road ahead. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
- save this article
- POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary
With all the current talk of a stockmarket correction, you might have entirely missed another example of irrational exuberance followed by despondency. What we have here is another period that offered an important lesson for investors – the need to adapt.