Global markets
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The Australian – AI optimists face a reality check as surging bond yields signal market trouble
Roger Montgomery
June 3, 2026
Bullish investors believe AI is a new, infinite fourth factor of a nation’s production and wealth creation. In the past, we had labour, capital and land as production inputs, all of which were, of course, finite. Land provided the raw materials, labour the muscle and the mind to transform them, and capital was the tool.
Enter AI. The transformative aspect of this fourth ingredient is that, unlike the physical limitations of land or the finite hours of the human workforce, data is a resource that is functionally unlimited. And, importantly, it’s the only factor of production that actually grows more abundant the more we use it.
continue…
This article was first published in The Australian on 27 May 2026.by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
ABC Newcastle Mornings – From oil shocks to space stocks
Roger Montgomery
June 2, 2026
I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss what history tells us about oil-price spikes and share markets, and why falling oil prices are not always positive for equities. We also explored the growing excitement around SpaceX, including the bullish case for the company, concerns about its proposed IPO structure, and why investors should be cautious of getting caught up in market hype. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.
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MEDIA
ABC Statewide Drive – Oil, markets, and lessons from history
Roger Montgomery
May 29, 2026
I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss what rising oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East could mean for markets. We looked at historical data showing that past oil-price peaks have often been followed by weaker share markets, and also explored the growing excitement around SpaceX, including the opportunities and risks for investors considering investing in the company.
Tune in from 1:46:33 here: ABC Statewide Drive continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.
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Consumer confidence hits a record low (while the NASDAQ Index hits a record high)
David Buckland
May 27, 2026
Australia and the United States (U.S.) currently have one thing in common.
Consumer confidence is in a world of pain.
In the U.S., the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded since the University of Michigan began tracking the data in 1952.
The Index, see Graph 1. and Table 1. below, hit 44.8 in May 2026, as Americans fear inflation, rising fuel costs, economic instability associated with the Iran War and the worry artificial intelligence (AI) will take white collar jobs.
When I look at the U.S. inflation rate – which was 3.8 per cent for the year to April 2026 – and the U.S. Federal Funds Rate at 3.75 per cent, I again point out a significant anomaly. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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The hidden cracks beneath the rally – we can only know that which can be measured
Roger Montgomery
May 25, 2026
On December 11, 1974, influential Austrian-born British economist and philosopher, Friedrich von Hayek, best known as a champion of free-market capitalism and classical liberalism, and a fierce critic of socialism and state intervention, delivered “The Pretence of Knowledge” as his Nobel Memorial Lecture. It was later published as an essay and remains one of his most famous critiques of central planning and hubris in economics. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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More bears join the chorus
Roger Montgomery
May 22, 2026
As the list of bears publicly declaring the end of the stock market’s bull run grows, so does the wave of charts, indicators and correlations used to explain or justify the growing chorus of crash predictions.
The bear camp’s advocates now include, most vocally, Scott Galloway, Ray Dalio and Michael Burry, and perhaps more reservedly, Torsten Sløck. Others in the bear camp include Jim Rogers and Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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They can’t all be wrong at the same time. Can they?
Roger Montgomery
May 21, 2026
Four consecutive years of high double-digit returns in the stock market is a rare occurrence. Indeed, it’s happened once in 100 years. If this year ended on a high, it would be the second time investors enjoyed four consecutive high-returning years.
A growing number of reputable investors, however, are suggesting that the outcome is unlikely and they’re citing the relentless rise of sovereign bond yields.
According to Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, government bond yields across the Group of Seven (G7) nations have surged to their highest levels since 2004. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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AI vs. war
Roger Montgomery
May 12, 2026
As we approach the middle of the year, markets and the global economy appear to be locked in a “tug of war” between the geopolitical shock of the war in the Middle East and the rapid maturation and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI).
The war has removed an estimated 12 million barrels of oil per day from the global market – the largest supply hit in history. Indeed, according to Macquarie Bank, global crude oil declines so far in 2026, have significantly exceeded those during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 1990 Gulf War and the second Gulf War of 2003. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
ABC The Business – Currency, Commodities and Investor Confidence
Roger Montgomery
May 11, 2026
I joined David Taylor on ABC’s The Business to discuss the recent strength in the Australian dollar and why markets are viewing the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as one of the more hawkish central banks globally. I explained that investors are increasingly betting on further Australian rate rises, which has helped push the Australian dollar higher relative to other currencies. We also discussed how rising oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the upcoming federal budget could all influence inflation and the future direction of interest rates. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.
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May the fourth be with you – A look at the ‘four’ factors of modern economics
Roger Montgomery
May 7, 2026
In economics, the wealth of a nation is built and sustained through production, and that production requires three ingredients: Land, Labour, and Capital. These are the finite building blocks of prosperity. Land provides the raw materials, Labour provides the muscle and the mind to transform them, and Capital represents the tools.
The primary challenge for every society has always been the efficient allocation of, and between, these inherently scarce resources. If you run out of one, growth grinds to a halt. You need all three. That was, it seems, up until recently, when it was proposed a fourth ingredient exists, and today this emerging thesis is inspiring stock market bulls. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
There’s a battle playing out right now between Wall Street’s most bullish artificial intelligence (AI) optimists and the bond market traders quietly sounding the alarm. The outcome of that contest will matter enormously to investors with skin in the game.